- Scott Wren, Bryan, Sameer (Sr market strategist) Samada, Paul
- Big Picture
- Economy in good shape
- No recession predicted for 2019 +
- Strong holiday sales
- Economy may slow
- Scaring the markets
- Job market strong
- Wages rising faster than inflation
- Yellow light – caution
- Credit card balances are rising
- Interest payments are low
- Home prices are rising
- Businesses
- Hiring
- Costs are increasing – eg wages
- Manufacturers showed sloing third straight month
- Tarriffs causing problems
- Corp debt high
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- Federal Reserve could make mistakes
- Partial Government Shutdown
- What is going to happen with Global Growth
- Look at markets monthly and adjust targets and trading
- Attractive returns next 12 months
- Stay invested, but look for opportunities
- Rate industrials and financials and health care sector – all favorable
- Utilities – Secure place to hide – Not enough movement or profit
- Stocks do well in modest growth and moderate inflation environment – planned for 2019
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- Investment Strategy Report – NEXT WEEK – CHECK IT OUT
- 25 worst quarters – 4th of 2018 was 20th worst quarter – NOT GOOD
- Russell Index Fund
- Average return 12 months later was about 15% – S&P return was about 70%
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- Strategy – Figure inflation outlook
- Look at Technicals
- Treasury yields move lower with selloffs
- – move higher with stability
- Probably about 3%
- Yield Curve – CHECK IT OUT – Has been flattening
- Hope for meaningful inversion
- 4 consecutive weeks – reasoned to be concerned
- Flattening is good
- Short term higher interest than long term – BAD
- Bonds expect recession
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- Why even keep bonds?
- Diversification – Limits volatility – Protects portfolio
- Short term have done bad
- Long term has done reasonably good
- Better than equity markets at this time – Significant losses
- PREFERREDS – Asset Class – Subject to volatility
- Selloffs in times of stress
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- What should an investor do
- Make sure your plan is up to date – MEET WITH JOHN
- Do not over react
- Do not hide – properly allocated – diversified – rebalancing
- Market = downtrend vs uptrend
- Returns lower – allow time
- Dollar cost averaging – RESEARCH
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- Cash things in – wait this out – NO – THAT IS OVER REACTION
- Make sure you know what your liquidity is, and do we have enough to carry us through
- Don’t be a forced seller – Wait for the upturns
- Inflation about 2%
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- Growth continues – Stay with your plan – Work with John
- Separate living expenses and money to be invested in market
- Maintain discipline
- Listen to recording
- January 3, 2019
- Wells Fargo Investment Institute
- Consider investment strategies and risk tolerance
